Estimating the Horizon of Predictability in Time Series Predictions Using Fuzzy Modeling Tools
Keywords
- inductive modeling
- time-series prediction
- fuzzy inductive reasoning
- estimation of predictability horizon
Abstract
This paper deals with the assessment of how far into the future a time
series can be safely predicted using inductive modeling and
extrapolation techniques. Three different time series are used to
demonstrate the viability of the approaches presented in the paper: one
time series representing the water demand of the city of Barcelona,
another characterizing the water demand of a section of the city of
Rotterdam, and a third describing weather data for the city of Tucson.
Fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR) is used to predict future values of
these time series on the basis of their own past. FIR predictions come
with two different built-in measures of confidence that can be used to
obtain a quantitative estimate of how far into the future a time series
can be predicted.
Interested in reading the
full paper?
(20 pages, 434,176 bytes, pdf)
Homepage
Last modified: February 9, 2011 -- © François Cellier